Blackwaterization

While Pakistan continues to explode, the hoped for public disavowal and retaliation against the Pakistani Taliban has not come.

While I am all too familiar with the ubiquitousness of conspiracy theories in certain countries, and the fact that sometimes, they are really not all that far off base in places like Russia, Georgia and other countries were criminal mafias, government and business are inextricable linked, this idea that Blackwater (no trying to rebrand itself as Xe) is being paid to commit attacks such as the one against the Meena bazaar in Peshawar and the International Islamic University in Islamabad is particularly baffling and disappointing.

Even young, educated Pakistanis that are not particularly religious are voicing these claims and not particularly blaming the Pakistani Taliban.

The Pakistani Taliban, for their part, are once again being pro-active and jumping on these popular themes in their own, increasingly sophisticated media.

This is not going to end well. Sometimes, you really do reap what you sow.

Proxy Battles in the Arabian Peninsula

Here's an intriguing blog post from FP:

"Are the Saudis prepared to constrain oil prices to weaken Iran? It's an intriguing possibility that, if implemented, could have major implications for U.S.-led efforts to curb the Islamic Republic's nuclear program."

I hadn't realized the Saudis had set such a low range for oil prices, and squeezing Iranian revenues had not occurred to me. This, combined with a reported coming glut in natural gas capacity, while other reports warn of a lack of investment in oil capacity, could have immense consequences for the Iranian economy, not to mention the hold of the clerics on power.

The Muppets in Palestine

One ritual I miss from the US is getting a big fat latte from a favorite coffeehouse and spreading out the Sunday New York Times. Sometimes the NYTimes Magazine has almost nothing of interest for me, but they pretty consistently come up with some great stories.

One such example is Can the Muppets Make Friends in Ramallah?, published back in September.

There are so many issues going on in this one effort to extend a worldwide franchise to Israel and the Palestinian Territories. Finding and developing local talent. Trying to create a joint production with Israel (which of course requires two different languages). Trying oh so hard to keep politics out of the stories yet making sure content is local and familiar.

I had no idea that Sesame Studios existed, let alone that it keeps such tight oversight on the content of national productions all over the world.

And the Muppets even have the same carriage and tone.

Home

This is a lovely photo series of the homes people make in slums.

Slums are often not what we picture in our heads, with unwashed masses living in filth. In Turkey, Morocco and many other countries, slum-dwellers keep their small living spaces far cleaner than the average middle class American.

In this piece, I love the bright colors. In Turkish slums the inside walls and balconies are often painted bright pastel green, blue or purple, while the exterior of the buildings is only cement and some exposed brick that one could imagine disintegrating in seconds in an earthquake.

Foreign Policy loves lists

Marc Lynch, formerly Abu Aardvark, has an excellent post called 10 Questions on Combating Violent Extremism, (a replacement for the 'global war on terror?').

Wither American foreign policy on this issue? This post is highly relevant given the painfully long deliberations of our strategy in Afghanistan, something I myself am of two minds on.

On the one hand, meddling in the affairs of the Middle East and South Asia has always produced serious problems (not to mention our meddling in South America). Sometimes we need to just step the hell back, quit lecturing and undermining our entire effort by not practicing what we preach, and let people figure out their own way.

On the other, in Afghanistan we made a commitment, we haven't delivered on what we promised, and it seems morally wrong to throw our hands and quit now.

That being said, there simply are not enough troops, not to mention qualified and willing civilians, equipment, or contractors with scruples to carry out an effective counterinsurgency. So I guess, to my surprise, I'm leaning towards lessening our presence rather than ramping up. However I certainly don't think it's right to abandon those populations in calmer areas where locals have no interest in helping opposing militant forces to those very militants.

In any case, Lynch's piece is definitely worth reading.

enjoy.

fits and spurts

So, like everything I do, this blog is another thing that I do in fits and spurts. Most of the work I do is contract or freelance, so sometimes I have lots of time, sometimes I have no time to do anything but fall into bed when I come home.

However, I've been enjoying this blogging thing, and as it has actually been picked up a little despite my refusal thus far to stage a full-scale launch and link it to all my other social media, I do think it's something I will keep doing, even if I continue to have a couple weeks on followed by a couple weeks off. There is so much fascinating work going on in development, energy and security, there's never a shortage of issues and developments to write about.

So thanks to those that have followed me and linked to me.

Good journalism is hard to find

Londonstani over at Abu Muqawama has been reporting directly from Pakistan the last couple weeks. Some good insights, check them out.

installationscapes

Foreign Policy has a beautiful set of photos of various oil facilities by Edward Burtynsky.

Solar power improving soft security in Iraq

One of the things I love most about the Middle East and Mediterranean is that people of all ages and lifestyles stay up and out quite late relative to northern Europe or North America. In Istanbul, I can happily walk outside after midnight any summer night and see families out for walks, old neighbourhood ladies out gossiping, young people out socializing, etc.

It also makes the streets much safer. People talk to each other, watch the neighborhood children and are quick to act if a mugging, theft or robbery is afoot.

The US military in Iraq has grasped this. In this small article touting successes in setting up solar-powered health clinics, it said the solar power systems were so well received, they installed solar-powered lighting in Northwest Baghdad Abu Ghraib. This meant markets, shops and restaurants stayed open longer, increasing economic activity, and as locals felt safer, the stay out later and in greater numbers, thus increasing security and and local confidence.

With one public good, a lighting system with a reliable source of power, you can aid the development and reinforcement of others: community, economic activity and security.

Can we integrate lessons learned from COIN and dismantling gangs?

I am continually struck by how much problems of terrorism and insurgency mirror those of violent urban neighborhoods in the US.

As McChrystal attempts to turn ISAF from a conventional force into an effective counterinsurgency machine in support of the Afghan government and development efforts, I wonder if some these ideas could be implemented in turning around tough neighborhoods wherein local government enjoys no legitimacy and whole generations of uneducated and even malnourished or otherwise developmentally challenged people are produced to begin the cycle of poverty and violence anew. Or if successful community policing lessons can be applied to COIN in some way.

I'm often struck by the basic tenants of COIN and certain similarities in the challenges and social landscape, especially in the lack of credible government and security structures in both environments and the role corruption, lack of political will and resources to effectively combat insurgents and organized, socially embedded gangs. While not discounting the radically different situations in terms of outside actors and complex role of clan and tribal structures absent in US urban environments (although you could argue these are present to some extent in transnational organized crime which often supplies narcotics), are there some practical lessons that can be shared here?

Private militias in Afghanistan

More news in the burgeoning academic field of research private security providers.

NYU's Centre on International Co-operation released a report today called The Public Cost of Private Security in Afghanistan.

The Guardian ran an article yesterday, which I found a bit confusing as far as what constituted a private militia and what a private security company.

Turns out Dyncorp, Triplecanopy and Xe contractors are not the only examples of extremely bad behavior the undermine both local government and the international presence.

There are national and international private security providers. The government in Kabul issues a limited number of licenses and supposedly has laws to deal with private military contractors like Xe, formerly known as Blackwater.

However international forces are hiring private militias on their own, completely outside of Afghan law, which still further undermines rule of law in general, and more specifically the Afghan national government and the presence of the international community. They are also no covered under the Status of Forces agreement.

And if that wasn't enough:

"Many of these private security providers serve as ready-made militias that compete with state authority and are frequently run by former military commanders responsible for human rights abuses or involved in the illegal narcotics and black market economies."

Alliance members, partners and contact countries, particularly in Europe, need to step up and start providing the security that is direly needed to conduct an effective counterinsurgency campaign. It is practically guaranteed to fail if we continue with the severe lack of resources we have at present.

Trafigura

These guys should face criminal charges, not just a lawsuit.

Counterinsurgency and the Russian military

One reason security forces in the North Caucasus have been totally unable to quash the violence is the rather high rates of corruption, violence and criminality in its own military.

Here is an article on the general state of the Russian military today.

Afghan protection rackets

The international press has been focusing far too much attention on Taliban drug profits.

While poppy cultivation is of course a serious problem that needs addressing, there are several sources for Taliban financing, and last week Time ran an excellent article on one that has been almost completely overlooked: protection rackets.

This presents an interesting problem. Some would argue that you pay the protection rackets until you reach a level of development in which formal employment and other opportunities are available. But this will not happen anytime soon in Afghanistan, and in many cases development workers are paying exactly those who are destroying infrastructure and killing teachers, students and others.

The only way out of this particular problem is in improving security. A school is of no use whatsoever if you can't protect it.

Strategic Recycling

If we are getting so worried about China cornering the markets in certain rare minerals necessary for technology, are we ramping up e-waste recycling programs?

Several articles have come out lately raising pointing out that China is restricting exports of 'green' lanthanide and other strategic commodities.

How much can we extract from unwanted ipods?

One thing I love about life in places like Turkey and Egypt is that poor families have figured out how to make good livings out of recycling and especially e-waste.

So if we have to become more efficient in our consumption in the post-industrial world, and we're worried that the elements necessary for our gadgets and indeed our defense equipment is being threatened, why do we not have massive recycling programs for our e-waste?

Like moths to a flame

Is the Northern Distribution Network drawing Taliban north?

That's what this Eurasianet article suggests. I'm not sure that's the case so much as the Taliban are seeking to destabilize the region regardless. Something to look at though.

How close is the US getting to Bakiev?

Here's an interesting development"

Yesterday Kyrgyz Prime Minister Igor Chudinov announced that the US plans to provide $21 million for an anti-terrorism center in the country.

The Manas airbase is no longer in danger of being shut down, much to the chagrin of the Russian, who had offered large loans and other incentives to Kyrgyzstan.

Will the center be used to work against terrorism and drug trafficking in the region? Or be largely symbolic?

Shiites turning the other cheek...for now

A key strategy of the ISI is provoking sectarian violence, which is did with spectacular success in the 2006 bombing of a revered Shi'ite shrine in Samarra.

Mosque and shrine bombings aren't working any more, according to this article and the ISI is working overtime to provoke more violence, even destroying a whole village this summer.

“The Iraqi Army is not the one people worried about three years ago,” said Ambassador Hill. “They were considered part of the problem a few years ago; now it’s an army that is broadly understood not to be engaged in sectarian violence.”

Militias got a bad name during that period, even among the people they were supposed to protect. Many were blamed for extorting money from their neighborhoods and carrying out kidnappings for profit. “The time of the militias is over and they will not come back,” said Sheik Abdullah al-Shimary, leader of the Shiite Al Shimer tribe in Diyala. “There are security forces now, and they are the ones who have the responsibility to control our areas.”

...

Another important difference has been the rejection by Sunni politicians of attacks on the Shiites, which was rarely heard in 2006. “The Sunnis openly and clearly are condemning these attacks,” said Ghassan al-Atiyyah, a political analyst who directs the Iraq Foundation for Democracy and Development. “And they’re all emphasizing that this is trying to stir up sectarian violence.”

Now if we can just get to this point in Afghanistan.

UPDATE:
Now new problems are popping up, with violence targeting mush more vulnerable groups with little if any social protection.

Rising tensions between Arabs and Kurds are also diverting attention in recent weeks.

Unknown Soldier

Some amazing graphic novels have come out in recent years.

Most recently, one about Uganda, called Unknown Soldier.

You can read a review here.

My favorite however remains Persepolis, wherein author Marjane Satrapi comes of age in during and after the Islamic Revolution. It has also been made into a lovely film.

Greening Marines

The US military is taking fuel security very seriously these days.

The US Marine Corps held it's first ever Energy Summit: “Lightening the Load – Reducing the Footprint in the Expeditionary Environment – A National Security Imperative for Success.”

It took place this summer. As so much technology has been adapted from military purposes for civilian use, hopefully this will help to drive development of alternative energy use that can then be deployed among civilian and commercial infrastructure.

woops

Over the next few days you'll have to forgive me for what may be some slightly old news.

I have several half-written or barely begun posts in here that got stuck when I was finishing up a contract.

Now I've got some more time and can dive back into this massive pool of information and pull out some of the interesting bits for you.

Is it really cheaper?

Has anyone done a study of security costs for oil & gas extraction?

Once again wondering this after reading an interview with Joe Berlinger, director of 'Crude'. He addresses the legal and moral implications, and documents an indigenous lawsuit against Chevron. You can read it here

There is no effective insurgency in Ecuador against oil companies, but it certainly raises the issues common to all such projects, and questions of legal and moral responsibility.

Conventional wisdom has it that these firms are so flush with cash that whatever security measures have to be taken can. But operating costs of increased exponentially over the last few years, as well as maintaining security systems and personnel, and often paying for military personnel to protect and even conduct campaigns around oil installations.

Some costs have fallen thanks to the crash in oil prices and other major commodities. However the need to provide security to facilities and personnel is growing in some key producing countries.

In Nigeria, oil workers can no longer have their families with them, must live in thick-walled, heavily guarded compounds, and can even be kidnapped on route to onshore and offshore facilities. One friend in Brussels was required to commute to Nigeria weekly FROM BRUSSELS due to security concerns.

Supposedly, Chevron, Shell and other majors operating there have preferred to flare off the gas produced as a byproduct of oil extraction because that is cheaper than channeling it to local communities to provide electricity. I would assume doing so would require brand new infrastructure to be built as well, thus adding to the cost.

But I wonder if investing in local energy would have stabilized soft security around onshore and by extension offshore facilities by aiding development. This may have reduced the need and therefore cost of security.

I'm not sure the firms should have been stuck with the responsibility for building the infrastructure, but it also could have ensured corrupt federal and local politicians didn't divert the money.

The conflict in the Niger Delta has been going on for decades and continues to escalate. It may be too late for such measures now, but I would love to see some cost analyses on these issues.

Joseph Stieglitz, maybe this should be your next project!

Ghana's Oil: Can it be a blessing and not a curse?

So Ghana will begin reaping oil revenues within a couple of years. This country, though still something very different from a post-industrial economy, has long been considered and oasis of stability and relatively little corruption in Africa.

Its population remains quite poor, though it continues to improve steadily and thus probably more sustainably, while Nigeria sees increasing violence.

On the Foreign Policy website this week, Todd Moss argues in Saving Ghana from Itself to pay oil dividends directly to citizens.

In Nigeria, giving more money to local officials meant it was only rerouted from one set of corrupt officials to another. Rebel and/or criminal groups, which increasingly overlap as the conflict goes on, have had a surprisingly effective impact on the oil industry there, reducing production by 20% consistently, and sometimes up to 40%. Rebels argue for compensation for environmental degradation, health problems and development, as well as the provision of energy to local communities, which would facilitate development. Alas, it remains cheaper to flare the excess gas from the oil fields than to channel it into local communities (which would also need the infrastructure to use it).

The UK, Norway, Chili, Botswana and Alaska (after a major corruption scandal) have managed to escape the 'resource curse'.

Moss suggests Ghana go the Alaska way with paying citizens directly oil dividends. My first reaction to this was, oh no, willy nilly spending as credit card companies and other opportunists move into a market not used to such products. However with the return rather low, about $85 per person according to Moss, this does not look like it would lead to such problems.

It is argued by some that in countries where citizens do not see returns from oil and gas extraction, they either turn to insurgency as in Nigeria, or populist political movements, as in Venezuela. Neither has happened in Azerbaijan yet. Or you could have Angola, where rival groups capture oil installations and damn sure guarantee their security in order to fund themselves.

An insurgency would take some time to develop, and hopefully Ghana's political institutions are robust enough to stave off systemic corruption and the subsequent hollowing out of political and economic institutions. Oman, having oil wealth equal only to a fraction of the flamboyant UAE, has embarked on a far more modest sustainable model of development, without major security threats develop as they have elsewhere on the peninsula.

I don't know enough about Ghana to make a semi-credible prediction here but hopefully it will pull of something similar to the other success stories.

Istanbul not Constantinople

The Foreign Policy website has an excellent post on the state of the moves by the AKP and even, amazingly, the military, to solve the Kurdish Question.

This situation will also directly affect Northern Iraq and vice versa, as well as US policies and actions in the region.

Vets for renewable energy

Operation Free is an organization of US military veterans campaigning for the development and deployment of renewable energy technologies to reduce our dependence on foreign hydro carbons, particularly from hostile regimes, and combat climate change.

Lack of, or very expensive, fuel hurts our ability to prepare our military, deploy, sustain ourselves and fight. Climate change creates more conflict and deployment of military resources weather for peacekeeping, conflict prevention/intervention, or disaster relief.

You can learn more about this organization here

Legacies of Conflict

BBC World recently aired an episode of 'Our World' called 'Chechnya's Missing Women'. It gives an introduction of a problem that has come to threaten every woman in Chechnya - kidnapping and forced marriage.

Though the short documentary was not nearly enough time to explore the issue, it is one that needs attention.

Following years of conflict as Chechnya won de facto independence in 1994, a new war beginning in the late 90's when Russia re-invaded the country led to radical Islamicization of the conflict as rebels sought to mobilize youth and gain more funding from abroad. While many in the Caucasus have returned to the Orthodox Church or Islam, be it Sufic, fundamentalist, violent extremist or local traditional, it constant conflict and brutality from both Russian and rebel groups, all of which are also involved in criminal activity, have led to an environment of total impunity, where practices like kidnapping and forced marriage are justified by invoking Islam.

There is also a radio version you can listen to here.

In prolonged conflict, social systems, which provide clear structures for power and authority, break down, leaving a vacuum for strongmen like Chechen president Kadyrov to step in with their own methods and priorities. The conflict is heating up again in Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan after Russia declared its counterterrorism operations over on 16 April, and could begin to destabilize the whole region.

Helping others, then helping ourselves

Why aren't we taking more lessons from alternative energy solutions devised in the field in countries without regular fuel supply?

Here's a neat little tidbit on an Iraqi Army checkpoint running on alternative energy.

Selling torture, among other things

Sigh.

It's amazing how sooooo many unqualified, unvetted people have been trusted with supporting the fight against terrorism and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Russia's next new base

Hmm. Hearing some speculation that the planned second Russian base in Osh, Kyrgyzstan may be more intended to fight militants and therefore instability and/or drug trafficking in Central Asia, especially the Ferghana Valley, which has uncertain, interlaced borders, as Turkic militants of various kinds may have been pushed out of the Pakistani tribal areas by the recent military campaign there.

Most media speculation has it that the base is simply to counter the US presence there at a small base supporting US forces in Afghanistan. Could it be both? Or is it really more the former?

Russia in Afghanistan

Plenty of the dodgy contractors we are dealing with in Aghanistan are from Western firms. But though discussion of Russian involvement in Afghanistan is usually centered around NATO/US use of air space and rail transport, as well as counternarcotics operations along key border areas, little to nothing is said of the Russian firms operating there.

The run up to Afghan elections

Violence is increasing agaisnt candidates in the run up to the presidential election, in which Afghans will also vote for provincial council seats.

Some women are running as well. I'm sure some of this violence has nothing to do with the Taliban and everything to do with various rivalries and grievances, as well as the fact that they are taking place in a society were power has been decided by force for the last three decades.

However it is unclear to me exactly how US and ISAF troops will protect populations. Cordons around towns? Searches? and from what perimeter?

Cash for inter-confessional marriage

Hmmm. The Iraqi government is now paying cash and providing mass weddings to Sunni-Shia couples.

Despite the 'ethnic' cleansing that occurred during the worst violence in the Iraq war, it seems some Iraqis are returning to their old neighborhoods and getting on with their lives.

Hopefully this will become the norm and we won't see much of the 'love IED'.

What's the lesser evil?

Often we are forced to deal with criminals who also command resources and political power. Often such people are present in the governments of established democracies as well.

But how does one make decisions on whom to deal with, when and how when trying to build a legitimate government in a country? Karzai is receiving scathing criticism for his capitulation to warlords and drug traffickers. And now for paying off Taliban in exchange for security for the upcoming presidential elections on August 20:

"The Afghan President made a reported treaty with insurgents in Badghis province last week. The deal included an alleged payment of £20,000 to Taleban commanders to allow voting in the area. Diplomats reported similar negotiations with Taleban commanders in provinces such as Farah, Nimroz and Herat."

While this may provide better security in the short term so that people from this area may get to the poles, it does not mean they won't suffer other forms of retribution and intimidation. It also provides Taliban with more funds with which to buy weapons and equipment and fund attacks. Kidnappings are increasingly used for this purpose.

It also makes Karzai look weaker. He has essentially recognized that Taliban are the power brokers there. Both his government and the international community have failed to provide security in these areas, and Taliban are actively working to destabilize others.

But what else to do? This excellent article by Elizabeth Rubin from this week's NYTimes Magazine gives some interesting insight into his current situation and perspective. Chatting with my colleagues that know better than I, they seem to think it's a fairly accurate portrayal, though some of info on how he became president is missing.

When a society experiences decades of massive conflict and movement, social systems break down. Old power structures that shape daily life and give paths and purposes to members of that society break down and disappear, as do traditional forms of social protection. Cooperation between groups becomes increasingly problematic, especially when resources are short, as each group is trying to extract the maximum amount from the earth, each other, foreign sponsors, etc, just to survive a bit longer, because thinking in the long-term has basically become pointless. Those in refugee camps don't learn many of the farming and other survival skills their parents or grandparents had, and have also lost many social and entrepreneurial traditions. Secular schooling, when there is any available, remains largely pointless when there are no jobs for educated person to have.

In Afghanistan, one reason the Taliban were successful is that they were united and organized just enough to bring order after years of infighting and chaos after the Soviets left. The various warlords had turned against each other, rocketing each other and Kabul and preventing any stability from taking hold. Many of them also came from extremist, Saudi-funded madrassas that offered young, impressionable boys food, safety, and an extremist, violent interpretation of Islam, as well as little to no contact with women. Many of them were taken their by parents who couldn't feed them.

It is into a country that has survived years of brutality and uncertainty that the international community has come to build a new government that won't provide safe haven to terrorists. The educated have mostly left, and foreigners with little to no knowledge of the country and its various tribes, clans and cultures have come into advise, or paid millions to development and military contractors to do the work for them largely unsupervised. Those Afghans who have stayed on for the duration have had to survive in an extremely uncertain environment and leaders are generally involved in the region's massive organized crime networks.

But they are also the leaders commanding votes and resources, so we have to deal with them.

The US and other countries have had their fair share of robber barons that helped to establish schools, museums and other forms of development. Of course Afghanistan is starting at a much lower level of development. The answer could be gradually drawing the better of them into legitimate, formal economic transactions while making drugs and other illegal activity increasingly costly. But this will require cooperation with all of the countries neighbors.

In the end we will have to deal with warlords. It has been a fact of power brokering since the beginning of human civilization. No society has become democratic over night, and none ever will. Democracy requires a functioning economy, stability and authorities that are not immune to accountability. The availability of lethal weapons to whomever can pay has removed the monopoly of deadly force from governments, and social systems, stability and a functioning economy both require security and bolster it. Which means there is a bit of a chicken-and-egg aspect to this exceedingly complex problem.

Not dealing with these local power brokers at all would be a mistake, but more purposeful and coordinated action is needed from the international community, and it has to step up and commit real resources and action to provide security, and therefore a space for development to occur. It has so far failed on numerous promises, and this has allowed the balance of power to alter as Taliban successfully destabilize areas where they have no public support, but the very real threat they pose to the safety of civilians and lack of protection from Afghan and international forces means locals must base their actions according to what is safest, and often this means never openly opposing the Taliban.

I wonder why they haven't tried to up salaries so that Afghan soldiers and police are better paid than Taliban foot soldiers? After the millions wasted on ineffective aid, why hasn't sufficient fund been channeled to the Afghan Army? It could be a first step.

Brussels, Capital of Europe

I'm often confounded by how many things don't work properly in Brussels. Or the bizarre little systems not used anywhere else I've ever lived.

Another is the rather crappy security. With NATO HQ here and the European Commission and Parliament, you'd think security would be a bigger issue. Nope, not the case. The bank inside the parliament was robbed at gunpoint during a session and the robber wasn't caught.

And in the last couple of weeks, several prisoners have escaped and re-escaped police custody. One via helicopter.

The ubiquitous lap dog poo is one thing, but jeez, shouldn't Brussels be a better face for Europe?

(I still like it better than London, however)

Erdogan and the DTP

Well the foreign press doesn't seem to care too much but according to Haber Turk Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be meeting with Kurdish Party DTP.

The PM meeting with a party that has reps in parliament may not sound like a big deal, but this is. Every previous Kurdish party has been banned, leaving Kurds with no political outlet for their very real grievances and ensuring continued if grudging support for the PKK.

But after years of inching forward on the 'Kurdish Question', 2009 has seen some major steps.

For a rather good and simple summary of the domestic forces (which means any results will be far more enduring than what the international community ever could have achieved) see this piece by Yigal Schleifer, who is an excellent source on Turkish affairs.

This ethnic conflict has long been a justification for the military's stranglehold on politics, which has been severely weakened since the last economic crisis in 2001 and rise of the AK Party. In the civil war of the 80s and 90s, around 30,000 people died, and the southeast has remained severely underdeveloped, especially compared to Western Turkey. Whole villages in the east were destroyed and their inhabitants forced to move to bigger eastern cities (making Diyarbakir into a city of refugees) or to cities such as Izmir and Istanbul in the west, with whole districts inhabited by hundreds of thousands of migrants with little to no education or work.

The separatist, sometimes abusive and criminal PKK didn't help matters, as civilians were caught between them and a state which has until very recently identified all Kurds with the PKK. The conflict exacerbated migration west with Kurds filling the slums around Istanbul that house around 6 million people.

Forget human rights, displacing millions that then must live in shanty towns as they seek menial labor only creates a disgruntled underclass caught in a cycle of poverty and ensures a large pool of recruits for organizations like the PKK. Politically expedient for the military yes. But for ensuring sustainable development for Turkey's children? The current moves to allow Kurdish political expression are a very good sign, and at least on this issue, I'm rather optimistic despite the very long road ahead.

Army Green

One thing I never understood about the Bush administration was its refusal and even attempts to undermine development of renewable energy sources. Developing renewables at home (as well as decreasing energy consumption and increasing efficiency) will make us less dependent on depletable resources with highly volatile prices.

The Army seems to finally be getting it. Forget any considerations about being green. Self-sustaining renewables are just good security all around, as the linked story explains.

Fuel/electricity are critical to military operations. If our interconnected grid is disrupted, so are our power supplies to our military bases. Generators only last for so long and require diesel to run.

As Dr. Kevin Geiss told a bloggers conference: "If we were going to try to get power and energy for our installations and we wanted to make sure that we have consistent access, that it’s affordable, that we would be at a low risk for disruption, that we would have decreased impact on the environment, I would say that our renewable and alternative energies would pop to the top of the list."

Solar plants will still have to be backed up with generators, and I don't know how much capacity they have to store energy for inclimate weather, nor will many military bases be appropriately located to produce substantial amounts of power by solar panels. But the more we look for solutions, the more we will find.

Interspecies communication?

An incredible story about interactions between whales and humans along the Mexican coast. A must read.

Cyberwarfare

This NYTimes article raises many of the issues regarding cyberwarfare.

Though the Geneva Convention doesn't cover this explicitly, rules governing proportionality and collateral damage still apply.

The article starts out addressing concerns about collateral damage - taking out civilian communications and other networks that are not related to military or government communications of the country being attacked.

In 2003 a major cyber attack didn't go forward because of concerns about collateral damage to communications networks, which really struck me as strange, as there has been an enormous amount of collateral damage in civiliian lives and physical infrastructure throughout the Iraq war.

Then I came upon this quote:

“Policy makers are tremendously sensitive to collateral damage by virtual weapons, but not nearly sensitive enough to damage by kinetic” — conventional — “weapons,” said John Arquilla, an expert in military strategy at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif. “The cyberwarriors are held back by extremely restrictive rules of engagement.”

Is this because they were aware they could cause a major economic disruption in a key part of the world? Despite the ongoing conflict, until the financial crisis most countries in region continued record economic growth, including in their stock exchanges. The lives of ordinary Iraqis were highly expendable, but not the communications networks that support financial activity around the region.

Of course a major concern with cyberwarfare is also that networks supporting hospitals, sanitation facilities and others could be accidentally taken out and contribute directly to the deaths of civilians. However one of the greatest failures of in Iraq war was an immediate failure to protect civilian infrastructure, particularly hospitals, from looting and physical damage. Why worry about damaging their communications when the buildings and equipment themselves are not protected?

Hopefully lessons have been learned from this. Bremmer's administration in Iraq consciously ignored many lessons of post-conflict reconstruction and reintegration. (For more on this, read this excellent article)

There doesn't seem to be much protection of schools and other civilian infrastructure in Afghanistan, especially outside Kabul. This may be due in large part to the already overextended forces there. But what good is building new schools when the Taliban can simply blow them up?

Cyberwarfare will not likely apply to Afghanistan in large order, as much of it is still off the grid, relying on generators or simply doing without electricity. However this is highly relevant for other conflicts. If the US attacks communications and computer networks in one country, it may damage critical communications infrastructure for surveillance and security in friendly countries.

Cyber security is another sexy topic these days, but as more and more of our lives rely on networks supported and regulated by computer programs, we will become ever more vulnerable in the event of such attacks.

American hikers in Iran

The Iraqi (Kurdish?) border guards that saw the 3 American tourists now being held in Iran cross the border said they didn't stop them because they are American - and they thought Americans are allowed to go anywhere, according to the BBC.

According to the LA Times, they simply ignored warnings. But they were still clearly allowed to pass right through.

What does this say about border security in Northern Iraq? I imagine it's all quite patchy, but jeez. Sounds like open season for any corrupt person with an American accent.

American citizens traveling to Iran have to get visas. If they are going as private citizens, they are usually required to have submit an itinerary and hotel reservation confirmations when applying for an entry visa. I guess these kids didn't do their research. Granted you can generally get around much of the Middle East by just showing up and waiting at border, but Iran is something else.

Stories

Against my better fiscal judgment, I went to the bookstore today and couldn't keep from help myself.

Haven't gotten far yet but this book by Tahir Shah looks great. While being tortured in Pakistan on suspicion of spying with Al Qaeda, he got through not only be escaping into memories, but the Moroccan stories his Afghan father had told him. The book begins in his torture chamber, then moves to his travels through Morocco upon his release, in search of more stories and storytellers.

Will post thoughts as I read through it.

I also recently read The Wasted Vigil by Nadeem Aslam. Beautiful, but not recommended if you're looking for happy endings. An ensemble cast of characters including a Taliban, Afghans, Englishman, American and Russian have their various stories told indirectly and we see how they've all come to Afghanistan. Aslam can go slightly too far on occaision with his gorgeous and sometimes sensual imagery, but it is a beautifully written story, if at times horribly brutal.

Sustainable links

A good friend of mine is doing awesome work at Digital Links, a tiny, London-based NGO in the process of rolling out several programs across sub-Saharan Africa. They provide IT equipment and training to Africans, who run the lab, learning center or whathaveyou, and can open an internet cafe or training center. They are also developing computer curricula for school systems there. Please visit the link if you would like to learn more.

A Snapshot from Swat

Small wire story on the slow return to normalcy in Pakistan's Swat valley. There's still a long way to go, and no telling what will happen in the future.

Sidenote: Pakistan is one country that despite sustained economic growth has actually been falling backwards, rather than moving forward, for decades on human welfare indicators. This has exacerbated violence in the country, where female literacy has been on the decline for some time. Much of it do to an absolute lack of political will.

Meanwhile, groups such as the Central Asia Institute have been working to improve the situation, but, rightly, only for communities that invite them. And many did. I wonder how many of their schools have been destroyed?

Food security

Here is a good article from the LA Times on how the conflict in Iraq has exacerbated desertification and hinders stability through decreased ability to grow food.

A couple of weeks ago NATO held an open conference on what should be included in its new strategic concept. A wide range of experts were there, underlining both the troubling trend of securitization, in which is seems just about everything has become a threat to the Alliance and its members, and the need to take many factors into consideration to ensure both hard and soft security for NATO. These include food security, energy security, economic development and many others.

Speakers included former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, LSE prof and conflict/human security scholar Mary Kaldor, and World Food Program Executive Director Josette Sheeran, among many others.

Its good to see NATO taking advice from so many sides.

Exxon and renewables?

While BP for some reason has lost its political will to go 'beyond petroleum' since the change in leadership, ExxonMobil, once the staunchest of climate change deniers, appears to be moving forward on renewables with unexpected vigor.

While BP has now chosen to invest in ethanol, which when you factor in all the carbon dioxide released in its growth, transport and production is often worse than straight up hydrocarbon fuels, Exxon is now diving full force into R&D on producing fuel from gentically engineered algae.

Read more here.

Geoffery Styles at the Energy Tribune has aome interesting and in my view encouraging thoughts on Exxon's announcement here.

Natural Security

If you're interested in the subject the Center for a New American Security, which is providing the current US administration with plenty of advice these days, has a blog called Natural Security. It's a bit dry, but a good source of information on why climate change, pollution, etc are important considerations for domestic and international security and stability.

Why has Russia been so absent from the climate change debate?

A not often discussed topic: Russia and renewable energy sources.

I'd like some more specific information on the development of renewables in Russia, but this is a good general article on the issue from the NYtimes.

Despite its massive pollution, the collapse of the Russian economy in 1992 drastically reduced its carbon emissions. However the country remains woefully inefficient in energy use and still relies heavily on manufacturing rather than services.

I suppose world leaders have other major issues on their minds such as security of energy supply rather than getting Russia to lower carbon emissions and increase energy efficiency. However more renewables in Russia would mean savings for them, more hydrocarbons to sell and more for Europe to buy.

However any major change would require political will that Russia likley just does not have at the moment.

On Western misperceptions of civil unrest in Iran and elsewhere

This is just such a good post I have to put up the link.

Friend, pollster and caustic commentator Christine Quirk wrote this excellent post on failed revolutions on her company blog, Asking Tough Questions in Tough Places. This is one of the best pieces I've seen on political struggles and the laregly useless euphoria that erupts thanks to international press and the desire of bored Europeans and Americans to become armchair activists, far removed from the realities of state brutality.

Bio-mimicry

Here are some very cool case studies about studying and basing designs of various contraptions on those found in nature to improve function and efficiency.

Thanks to novelist and women's health professional Naseem Assefi for the link.

Electricity supply

Thinking out loud...

Should the EU be more concerned than it currently is about protecting its electrical generating and distribution systems? Some working the civil infrastructure sectors seem to think the home-grown terrorist threat, while by no means enormous, does pose a growing if still small threat of attack on such facilities.

When one speaks of 'energy security', it generally conjurs up sexier issues of gas and oil supply as well as the geopolitics that inevitably accompany these depleting resources.

However electrical supply is absolutely necessary for the normal functioning of commerce as well as security apparatuses in the developed world, and key for development elsewhere.

Successful attacks on electricity supply could have enormous psychological and economic impact. However electricity can be rerouted through alternate distribution networks and damaged lines can be repaired quickly. A Successful and highly disrupted attack would require substantial planning and surveillance.

Serbian New Age Healers and Ethno-Nationalism

Here is a fascinating, if not well-written, story about war-criminal-turned-new-age-healer Radovan Karadzic.

I used to study the 20th Century conflicts in the Balkans but have since shifted focus. I had no idea the community of new age healers in Serbia is largely a community of extreme Serbian ethno-nationalists.

One higlight: The sex therapist who only wears green and was working with Karadzic to develop therapy for lethargic sperm. Apparently Karadzic has somekind of special life force he can channel between his hands.

Alas, as he is being tried as a war criminal in The Hague, Serbs have been deprived of this special service.

Psy-ops vs PR/Communications

As NATO slowly moves to improve its public messaging, who is running the psyops programs in Afghanistan?

Hearts and minds has been the buzz phrase for some time now, but Al Qaeda Franchise and Taliban propaganda efforts are still running circles around the US and NATO. These groups have launched increasingly sophisticated print and virtual media campaigns that directly address local grievances while the Western powers continue to play to their home audiences.

General McChrystal has been very busy, now ordering to troops to stop barrelling across public roads, damaging local infrastructure and scaring the locals, for example. Something certain special forces, private contractors and aid workers have been begging military personnel to stop doing for some time.

However there is still very little info on what is being done about messaging to the local population. Most of them still hate the Taliban and certainly do not trust them, however the Taliban are very successful at undermining NATO/US messaging, as they sabotage development efforts, blowing up schools we build and than fail to protect.

And really, why would Afghans trust coalition forces and aid organizations when we've failed to deliver so much over the last eight years, and every regime and invading power in the last 30 years has failed and left?

If psy-ops is running local messaging, I suspect this would be a very counterproductive approach. However even within NATO there communications are not always clear, transparent, and the Alliance's agenda sometimes even clashes with that of particular member states.

Many poles have been done among Afghans, but the international community, including humanitarian origanizations, still seem intent on ignoring them. This needs to stop. More local involvement and expertise is needed, the international presence needs to be far more coordinated and strive to achieve common goals rather than operating in a patchwork of competing spheres of influence and messaging.

Population protection and pro-active, nuanced and adaptive messaging system are absolutly key to events there taking a turn for the better.

People you never hear about

Here is another interesting article from RFE/RL on African Russians.

I never thought about the fate of all those Africans who went to study or settle in the Soviet Union, although their numbers were relatively small.

Kyrgyzstan is getting popular

It seems now that the US is staying on at its Manas airbase in Kyrgyzstan, Russia wants a base there too.

Geothermal energy

This fascinating NY Times article on a new project to develop geothermal energy in the US brings to mind a lot of questions:

How safe is this really?

If this is the first time we are drilling so deep into the Earth, how can anyone say for sure that it's safe?

What are the environmental costs of this kind of operation? Presumably they are much lower than extracting hydrocarbons, but still?

What to do if such operations always induce earthquakes that result in constant minor property damage?

I'm all for cleaner ways of producing energy from back home and doing as much as we can to reduce dependence on foreign oil. Thanks to the geopolitical game and low prices for hydrocarbons, new infrastructure is not being built to meet Europe's and the US's energy needs.

I'm especially happy to hear about strong investments in clean energy that are not ethanol, as producing it also produces massive carbon emissions.

But what happens when you start breaking up the ground beneath your feet?

Women and resistance in Iran

Finally, this thoughtful post from Salon's Tracy Clark-Flory, is a thoughtful reaction to the shock of Westerners that women are out on the streets of Tehran protesting right alongside their brothers.

It also reflects a little on armchair activism. I myself have mixed feelings on the subject.

As per my eariler post, cliches about young women coming out from behind the veil drive me nuts. The Middle East and Islam do not the monopoly on misogyny, and women there, as in all societies, have resisted repression and found ways to work the system throughout history.

Though I do not find any of these women to be particularly good role models, how is it that patriarchal societies such as Turkey, Pakistan, India and others managed to have female heads of state, and the US has yet to have one?

Every society, and every movement, are inherently full of contradictions.

Do the right thing

Some are calling on President Obama to issue harsh statements condemning election fraud in Iran.

This would be a mistake.

Taking a hard line on Iran has produced no results thus far, and it gives the like of President Ahmedinejad plenty of propaganda. It also stokes popular anger at the West among Iranians, as they feel ignored, oppressed and persecuted by a hypocritical world power.

The issues of dignity and pride are much more important than most in the West realize. Being preached to be former colonial powers, powers that caused the world financial crisis, and who brazenly violated their own laws to fight terrorism at any cost is something which only drives people further from us, not towards.

Don't confuse protest and popular anger at a domestic leader with support for the West. Many who stand up and fight for rights, against tyranny and corruption, also have deep anger towards the United States and sometimes other powers.

The events in Iran have inspired many misinformed articles with superficial analyses written with no regional understanding.

The US and Europe should not meddle in this matter. This is up to Iranians, and any support for the opposition from us will only serve Khamenai and Ahmedinejad.

I do have one question though - why in the world did the authorities not wait until enough time had passed for the votes to be counted before announcing a predetermined result?

Africa could power Europe

German company Munich RE is looking to raise funds for a project that would power Europe through solar energy generated in the Sahara desert.

Apparently some think it is not a good idea to place solar panels in a potentially unstable part of the world. I would think, however, that the infrastructure would not be as heavy, need as many personnel, and be cheaper to maintain.

Not to mention that most hydrocarbons, with their huge infrastructures, come from unstable or potentially unstable parts of the world. Algeria provided 15% of Europe's gas imports in 2008, and it is more reliable than Russia, which supplied 40% of all gas imports to Europe in 2008.

Tunisia is a rather stable country, and AQ in Libya has been totally unable to establish an effective organization there.

I don't know enough about the technical aspects of this or what the costs of the equipment, infrastructure and maintenance would be. However it still seems like a good idea to me.

Eliminating Sovereignty

Popular unrest has not lead to more accountability, but, it seems, less thus far in Russia. Even as that state comes under more and more economic pressure, it is getting ever more heavy handed.

The Russian Constitutional Court's directive this week to 11 of its "ethnic republics" ordered them to eliminate all references in their constitutions to "sovereignty".

For a short piece from the poitn of view of a Tartar former official, see here.

For a more general article about the Constitutional Court decision, see here.

Cliches, cliches

One thing that drives me crazy in Western media is the constant surprise when we see an example of a woman in the Middle East that is not clad in black robes from head to foot.

I was excited to see this article on Salon.com from Der Spiegal, but I was quickly disappointed.

While Zahra Rahnavard is certainly an interesting woman, she is not the first pious Muslim woman to stand up a corrupt and self-righteous regime by any means.

We are so fixated on the veil.

This excerpt shows unfamiliarity with the myriad styles of veiling in Iran, where many women show a few inches of hair and sometimes much more, and wear make-up, as well as colorful scarves, which are sometimes simply draped over the head and tied with a loose not. It is also well known that Iranian women dress as they please under those long robes, which they can take off at home or safe inside their friends homes.

'When Rahnavard arrived before Sunday's press conference, she was wearing a colorful headscarf and heavy make-up, a violation of rules in Iran. A denim shirt could be seen at the sleeves of her chador.'

Of course, news organizations love to show file photos of women in oppressive chadors, and veils, but often if you watch their television footage there are many women in the back ground, out of focus, who do not look this way.

Ulrike even quotes an Iranian beautician who makes this point:

'"Iranian women are self confident, sexy and intelligent," says Mahin as she massages a client's face. The rest of the world doesn't perceive this, she says. Instead it thinks of the image of the oppressed woman in a chador.'

There are many reasons for covering in one form or another, and many, many, many, different ways of dressing in the Muslim world. Muslim women are just as intelligent and diverse as we, and they make conscious choices. Yes, some are most certainly coerced or forced upon them, but like any human being they adapt and assert their power in very different ways that get very little attention in our media.

Don't reduce what this woman is doing to her make-up or her flowered head scarf.

On a related note, here is an excellent deconstruction of a picture taken in the aftermath of the Israel-Lebanon war in 2006. Do these women look like the pictures they usually show from Hizbullah territory, or Arab countries in general?

MENDing the Niger Delta

MEND, or the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, is a fascinating terrorist group. It is not separatist or religious, but has the seemingly altruistic demand that the notoriously corrupt Nigerian government reinvest revenues from the significant amounts of oil extracted from the region for development as well as cleaning up the environmental damaged caused by oil spills and the work around oil infrastructure.

The exact origins of the group are not well understood. They emerged in force in 2006 and have shown an enormous capacity to learn and conduct highly effective attacks, even on maritime facilities at least 75 miles out to sea.

As far as I'm aware, only Iraq has suffered a more severe disruption of oil extraction and transport, and the situation there is improving. Nigeria's coast is also now the second most dangerous after Somalia's.

MEND has managed to reduce Nigerian oil output by more than 25% - and the organization is conducting more daring attacks all the time.

In general, though security around hydrocarbon infrastructure is generally high, there is not a significant risk of disruption. Attacking these facilities takes a high degree of planning, organization and skill. Attacking maritime oil platforms in particular takes a specific skill set. Al Qaeda has not developed these skils among its fighters to date, and therefore has been trying to co-opt Somali pirates, though they do not seem to have yet been successful in this regard. It is worth noting though that Al Qaeda justifies attempts to damage energy infrastructure simply to force hydrocarbon firms and governments to spend enormous amounts of money on security measures. This is one of their forms of 'economic jihad'.

MEND however has continued improving its skills. Attacks thought to be linked to Niger Delta militants are occurring in Equatorial Guinea and Cameroon. Security in the Gulf of Guinea is compromised, and this is a major source of oil supplies for the global market.

Deputy oil minister Odein Ajumogobia told VOA, "Nigeria has a production capacity of 3.2 million barrels a day. Today, we are down to about less than half of that in terms of production. Over one million barrels are shut in as a direct result of security issues in the Niger Delta. That is something that should concern all of us."

MEND eschews any religious or other motivation, and recently informed the US, after apparently false claims by the government, that it faces no danger from MEND.

Oil workers however have been warned to leave or be subject to attack.

Industry and security sources told Reuters that "it is virtually impossible to fully protect hundreds of kilometers of pipeline running through remote and largely unpopulated areas."

MEND has also been known to hire members of organized crime for their skills.

Oil firms may not be swayed by the concerns of human rights activists or environmentalists, but working to ensure security and environmental protection around project areas helps everyone's security. It can even improve the overall security for local communities and encourage development, as road development for the BTC crews the Turkish jandarma guarding the pipeline meant village roads were paved and kept passable year round, when previously they had been impassable in the winter.

When oil firms stop claiming they have no responsibility for the actions of government personal that kill, extort and otherwise exploit local populations, they ultimately reduce the security of their investments, as no one has any incentive to keep it safe. In the case of Nigeria, organized criminals steal oil, which funds other criminal activity, and lines the pockets of particular figures in the government. They have no incentive to pursue meaningful change.

When oil firms step up to meet this challenge, they won't find themselves practically at war just to extract a fraction of the oil they would be able to in a truly secure environment, and they would even save on lawsuits, and particularly on the smaller need for security measures.

EU insists on commercial approach to Central Asian gas

If this is true, it seems unbelievably naive.

Ahto Lobjakas writes that the EU insists market forces drive commercial development of the gas industries and pipelines coming from Central Asia to Europe.

"The EU still views reaching out to the Caspian region as, first and foremost, a commercial undertaking. The bloc's officials appear sincerely to believe that the free interplay of market forces will obviate the need for political intervention."

This completely ignores the fact of Russian and Chinese willingness to offer massive investment or aid to countries that are willing to play ball with them and not work the West. If the EU continues this way, it will forever be dependent on a belligerent and prideful energy supplier.

The soft power of Russia, and especially China, in the development game is increasing. These governments can offer loans and grants, build infrastructure cheaply (China even supplies its own labourers), and most of all, do not attach troublesome conditions of transparency and human rights to their assistance.

Of course in the CIS, Russia is not exactly a soft power, but more of a bully.

But the EU seems to be ignoring this as it maintains its stance that market forces drive Central Asian gas development.

"These high-minded sentiments presuppose a level playing field -- which simply does not exist. If the EU avoids political involvement, it risks treating as abstractions very concrete geopolitical interests. Inevitably, the interests of the strong will prevail over those of the weak. The EU itself, as a player, is consigning itself to fighting for its interests with one hand tied behind its back."

Russia is trying to maintain its stranglehold over most of the Central Asian gas supply, the export of which is almost entirely controls thanks to Soviet-era infrastructure, geography, and a lack of funds in most of the countries for even maintaining existing energy infrastructure, let alone building more.

The EU needs to wake up and start making some hard choices. Things are unlikely to change much as long as Italy, France and Germany keep defending Russia and bowing to pressure from the Kremlin.

When is volunteering not ethical?

I just noticed one of the Goolge ads posted on here was called "ethical volunteering".

When is volunteering not ethical?

I suppose if you're a volunteer suicide bomber, that's not ethical.

Simple ideas can have such a devastating impact

Much has been made of the inability of powerful conventional armies to combat insurgents.

The Sunday Times ran a short article yesterday about a boy, who normally works as a porter, who was paid what he normally makes in a week to simply deposit a light bag into a spot at a crowded market. It then exploded, shattering his foot and killing 3 people.

I always wonder, why hasn't this been a tactic before? So simple and effective, and almost impossible to gaurd against, particularly in a country where public awareness campaigns are difficult to mount thanks to illiteracy, poverty, distrust of the government and lack of coordination within the government.

What's the real issue?

Though I'm a bit of a lefty myself, I find much of the criticism over Shell's recent settlement to be missing the point. $15.5 million is peanuts, true, and the firm claims to spend some $280 a year in social/development projects, yet there has been little progress in cleaning up the devastated Niger Delta.

But Shell is a business after all, and a business we need if we want to have all our electric appliances plugged in at home and keep driving our cars to buy simple food items most Americans can no longer get within walking distance of their homes.

That being said, there is in my view quite a strong business case for the firm to do more. Stop blaming thieves for oil leaks, and fix the damage from the leaks from 15 years ago before theft was such a problem. If there had been real engagement with development in the local area at that time, locals wouldn't have as much incentive to steal today. Not to mention that even if the wildly corrupt Nigerian government doesn't enforce the ban on gas flaring, you have no excuse not to stop this toxic and wasteful practice.

Things are only getting worse, and it seems we have a real insurgency on our hands that threatens to spill over into the Gulf of Guinea. Nigerian waters are now the second most dangerous after Somalia, according to the International Crisis Group.

The main militant group in the region, MEND, has managed at various times to shut down half of Shell's oil production in Nigeria alone. It has reduced the country's annual output by 25%, costing billions to both oil companies and the government since 2006. In that time, oil workers have had to live in high-security compounds with panic rooms due to hundreds of kidnappings. Oil is stolen from pipelines and infrastructure, even out at sea, is attacked. Crew are targeted as they travel to installations, requiring heavy security for all crew members for the duration of their stay in the region.

$15.5 million and legal fees may not be much to Shell, but I would think that billions in lost revenue, the inability to expand production, the cost of constantly repairing damaged infrastructure and the constant security presence simply to protect workers must also run pretty dang high.

So why the refusal to engage meaningfully with local communities?
Has anyone ever done a thorough cost-benefit analysis? I don't know who protects their personnel, but I know private military contractors ain't cheap either.

Human security initiatives have worked elsewhere, even in the case of apathetic and corrupt governments that rely on commodities to keep them comfy (Azerbaijan).

Indeed, this is closely related to counterinsurgency. The BTC pipeline runs across 3 countries with separatist groups, but has seen very few attacks. In some cases, local communities are now interacting much better with government officials thanks to facilitation from development projects necessary to the stability and sustainability of the communities surrounding the project area.

Not to say there haven't been problems there. And in any case, oil installations will cause destruction of some kind where ever they are built, just as all development does, not matter how 'green'.

Long story short, we need to be calling on oil companies to be more responsible because its good for all of us, including them. More pirates are bad, and they collude with organized crime, some of which finances terrorism. One reason Al Qaeda advocates attacks on energy infrastructure is simply to hurt the West through the high cost of security measures on these facilities.

Update

Regarding the post below and one previous, NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer pointed out at a press conference in Brussels today that no ISAF forces intentionally kill civilians, underlining that Taliban and other insurgents do intentionally kills civilians. He also noted the example of girls being attacked with acid by the Taliban when they try to attend school.

The statement was given in response to a question concerning security for the upcoming elections and civlian causualties. The Secretary General also said he will continue to apologize for any civilian casualties.

Of course, he's soon to be replaced.

Drones for PR

I wrote in a previous post about the possible use of a video of a US air raid that supposedly proves Taliban members caused civilians to be killed before, during and/or after a US air raid. That video has yet to be released.

I was beginning to wonder why we don't more routinely release videos of Taliban atrocities, since they make such excellent propaganda use of coalition mistakes and often talk about the suffering and deaths of women and children.

In Pakistan, the video of a young girl being flogged by the Taliban did more than the Pakistani government ever could to help turn public opinion strongly against them. So why hasn't ISAF begun releasing tapes of this nature when they have them?

It seems now they will.

Today Combined Joint Task Force-82 released a video of a grenade attack in Afghanistan which had been perpetrated by someone in the crowd while Coalition forces were working to free and armoured vehicle. At least 2 witnesses said the grenade had been thrown by the soldiers.

This is an excellent tactic. Why not use drones to spy a little more and release footage of Taliban and insurgent atrocities? This would show their true colors to foreign donors who only support them as fighters against foreign invades, but who would never want to be ruled by them. Press releases and other claims by Coalition Forces are likely to fall on deaf ears. Video of local events witnessed by tens or hundreds of people are much more difficult to counter.

Development and CSR

So far, I've written a feature article and a book chapter, to be published this fall, on corporate social responsibility in Turkey. My subsequent research has actually led me to different conclusions than the experts I quoted in the feature article, but it is a fascinating subject.

Some believe it is only Western multinationals driving the development of CSR in Turkey. However this European Stability Initiative report alone, without discussing the CSR agenda, proves otherwise.

Today I received a call for papers from UNRISD on the effects of the financial crisis on social policy and governmental policy regarding financial regulation as well as social issues. I'm thinking of writing a piece on what has changed with the CSR situation in Turkey since the financial crisis.

Some have argued that CSR is doomed thanks to the financial crisis, whereas others believe it is in demand now more than ever and firms find it in their interest to do. Many CSR efforts remain largely tied to public relations campaigns, but there are businesses out there that find certain concrete actions necessary. Yet I found highly visible foreign multinationals such as HSBC participate in Turkish-style corporate philanthropy without incorporating more accepted forms, such as compensating employees for volunteer time, despite lots of glossy publications stating their comprehensive supstainability programs. (I aslo write about this in my above-mentioned article).

After discovering many Turkish firms outperforming HSBC on this end and rising public awareness in Turkey about climate change and other health issues, I'm eager to see what's happening in the current economic situation.

Raising Shia influence would stabilize the Arab world?

Apparently this is one of the strange ideas of the Bush-era neo-cons who were deciding policy in Iraq.

Just one of the interesting insights in this Vanity Fair article from David Rose. He outlines efforts by Sunnis in the heart of the heartland of the Iraqi insurgency, including sheikhs, businessmen and academics, to reach out to US officials and cooperate to rebuild the country as early as 2004.

Despite talks with some high-level US officials who agreed bringing them in would help to stem the deterioration of security in the country, including military figures, those in Washington remained steadfast that dealing with anyone with connections to the Ba'ath Party or Sunni insurgents was off limits.

Iranian influence a mixed bag

Nathan Hodge over at Danger Room has an interesting post on the US Army's Human Terrain System and its concerning Iranian influence in Afghanistan

Hodge makes some good points about the quality of the reporting, but what stood out to me was the effect of indirect and direct Iranian assistance in Bamiyan province.

This province, famous for the two 1000-year-old Buddhas carved out of the mountains, and which Taliban blew up, is home to a large population of Hazaras. These are a distinct ethnic group which has traditionally been quite low on the Afghan totem pole. They also speak a dialect of Persian, practice Shia Islam, and many have worked and lived in Iran.

The Islamic Republic of Iran has never been against the schooling of girls despite its insistence that they cover their hair in public and wear no make up, as well as giving them fewer rights than men. However their attitudes towards women are eons passed those of the Taliban, and Afghan women returning from Iran to Bamiyan are showing increased interest in education and work. This may be far more effective than competing Western NGO's attempting to influence local populations.

Like many Afghans, most Hazaras have had little access to education ever. Perhaps for them, especially those living in still-safe Bamiyan, life quality really is improving.

Iran has also invested significantly in Afghanistan's development, inthe agricultural sector, power grid and transport, as well as built schools and libraries and provided emergency food assistance.

However there have also been reports that the Iranian government is providing some light assistance to Taliban and other fighters, presumably to keep ISAF and US forces busy, despite tha Taliban's intolerance of Shias. Any such assistance may level off if the recent spate of attacks and bombs, tied to Taliban friends Jundallah, in Iran continues.

Finally

I am amazed that in 8 years of the 'war on terror' there has been no major push, publicly at least, to draft and adopt new international law on the capture and detention of transnational combatants not tied to a state.

However the Georgetown University's Center on National Security and the Law is planning a campaign to do just that.

As the Geneva Convention does not cover the capture and detention of transnational terrorists without uniforms or insignia, governments have been able to make up the rules as they go. The Bush administration was of course in no hurry to adopt or even develop such legislation. The current administration already seems amenable to the idea; the center's former head, Neal Katyal, is now the Obama administration's Principal Deputy Solicitor General.

Hopefully, this new international legislation will become a priority.

Propaganda wars

As pointed out by others, one key message the US and coalition forces in Afghanistan should be putting out is being totally overlooked; The Taliban and other insurgents are responsible for just as many, if not more, civilian deaths.

Yet the PR teams have generally remained on the defensive concerning civilian casualties, without bringing more public attention to the brutality of insurgents.

This could be about to change; the US forces are weighing the option of releasing a video they claim will show the actions taken in Garani, where 25 civilians died in an air strike, will justify their deaths. Even if the video clearly shows, as they claim, that the Taliban hiding among civilians, I highly doubt proving the use of human shields will have any affect whatsoever on Afghan civilians, most of whom despise the Taliban in any case.

However, if it is true that the video shows the Taliban holding civilians captive, and particularly if it also shows them killing civilians with hand grenades after the air strike, this may indeed help in the propaganda war.

Yet here again, the fact that the Taliban not only use civilians as human shields but commit unjust murders is not the focus of the message, but the justification of civilians deaths.

US General David Petraeus says the video will justify the actions of the forces and show that they successfully targeted Taliban fighters. Perhaps the emphasis should be more on the actions of the Taliban, not only hiding among civilians but forcing them into a trap and killing them to place the blame on US forces.

Perhaps the main problem is that those tasked with public relations in Kabul remain far more concerned about PR regarding their home populations than combating Taliban and Al Qaeda propaganda among local populations. (In Pakistan, the beating of a young girl by the Taliban in the Swat Valley helped to inflame public anger at the group there.)

"Recording an ongoing body count is hardly going to endear us to the people of Afghanistan," says British Royal Navy Capt. Mark Durkin, spokesman ISAF, told the Wall Street Journal.

The Wall Street Journal has an interesting article on the arguments over the usefulness of body counts in public relations to communicate victory:

“Does it buck up the troops and the home front to let them know the enemy is suffering, too? Or does the focus on killing distract from the goals of generating legitimacy and economic development?"

I think it's become pretty clear that in Afghanistan body counts are not the point.

In fact, it seems that only the American public is interested in them, and I would be interested to see some research on how many Americans actually think high body counts communicate success, especially amid the numerous reports that we are fighting an uphill battle in parts of Afghanistan. Body counts were also touted as measures of success in Vietnam for a time.

The governments of European contributors to ISAF forces do not release body counts except in rare instances.

Indeed in the Israel/Palestine conflict, the body counts of Palestinian killed versus IDF forces are always far higher. However this has not led to any cessation in the conflict and has only radicalized more Palestinians.

The Taliban and Al Qaeda have made excellent use of civilian deaths caused by Coalition forces in their propaganda, undermining the claims of the US and ISAF that they are not intent on killing Muslims. Both groups have shown in their public statements that they follow international news media and use what they find there to show that they are winning. With ideologies that rest on the willingness of numerous volunteers to either commit suicide attacks or fight to the death, as well as reinforcements from abroad, body counts have little relevance regarding foot soldiers.

The Taliban and affiliated groups have also begun warning civilians to stay away from certain areas, such as government buildings and certain markets, to reduce civilian casualties and create a perception that they do not kill Muslim civilians unless they are somehow collaborating. Al Qaeda and the Taliban have lost a great deal of support thanks to killing civilians, and these groups are pro-actively developing some of their propaganda around this key point while NATO and the US remain on the defensive.

Another interesting point the WSJ makes is that body counts are highly unreliable. The Taliban typically remove their dead after a fight. Thus US forces then must monitor funerals and communications to confirm which insurgents were killed, if any. This leaves a great deal of room for error.

The other side to this is publicizing the developmental successes to local populations and finding a way to root out the endemic corruption that has taken hold. In some areas, Coalition forces are welcomed, in others they are reluctantly tolerated.

In any case, winning the propaganda war among Afghans may be an uphill battle as long as violence and corruption persists.

Energy news: Kurdish oil

The Iraqi Kurds are officially extracting and exporting oil all on their own.

The oil is flowing north through a pipeline to the Turkish Mediterranean port and hydrocarbon shipment hub Ceyhan.

The big question here is how the profits from the resulting revenues will be shared and invested, as well as what this will do to relations between the KDR and the central Iraqi government. Will this help smooth the way for development and integration or only create more conflict between between the two bodies? I predict that latter.

However, as a fast developing Iraqi Kurdistan continues to benefit Turkey economically, it may have the effect of helping the latter, which has taken on the role of mediator in several major regional issues, to have a greater interest in pushing the KRG and the central government into negotiations and drawing up more practical government structures to facilitate development in the rest of Iraq.

For the Anthros out there

I recently ran across an article about anthropologist Sarah Blaffer Hrdy's new book, Mothers and Others, on Salon.

To my surprise, I hadn't heard of her before, despite her long career of making controversial statements about motherhood, breeding, childrearing, and other related subjects in primates and people.

Here is an excellent summary of her career and key ideas.

Many of her observations and ideas mirror my own after having lived in various countries and observing different lifestyles. I find her statements about allomothers particularly accurate and important.

However statements that her views are now commonly accepted do not ring true to me. After my stint in the London School of Economics Anthropology department and other experiences, I think many of her ideas have yet to gain widespread acceptance, even if they seem obvious.

The 'Love' IED

When most reports from Iraq are full of generalizations about Sunnis fighting Shiites and vice versa, this short article from the NYT offers an example of Shiite members of the Iraqi police fairly arbitrating a difficult and destabilizing problem - lots of young men, who are not only bored and unemployed, but have plenty of bomb-making skills to boot.

Triumph of (old) Technology

Is there a way to make big, unwieldy organizations and alliances more proactive and less reactive?

One reason the international terrorist movement is so hard to contain and destroy is its adaptability, while ISAF, US forces and the Afghan government remain woefully slow to adapt their strategic communications, particularly regarding local populations.

An article in the latest edition of the Jamestown Foundation's weekly Terrorism Monitor takes a look at FM radio stations in Pakistan and their extremely effective use in PR and propaganda for local Taliban militants.

As reported by the WSJ, The US began jamming radio stations in Afghanistan and Pakistan earlier in the year as part of a larger psy-ops program. The Taliban immediately seized upon these efforts to point out how the mighty US military can be undermined with simple technologies, using FM radio stations with only a 20 km broadcast radius.

Particularly in areas of Pakistan where the government has little to no presence, the Taliban use these radio stations to broadcast sermons, urge the young to fight jihad and the old to provide physical, moral and financial support.

Such content is predictable, but these broadcasts go beyond the traditional rallying calls and are also interactive. In Pakistan, where until recently the government rarely had any interest whatsoever in responding to the concerns of the local population, let alone ensuring the provision of public goods such as law enforcement, education and health care, Taliban-linked groups have seized upon popular discontent and can appear to offer an alternative through radio broadcasts. They broadcast from mosques and madrassas where hundreds of male participants ask them questions, which are then answered on air. Women are not allowed at these gatherings, but they are included; they send in questions, via SMS or other means, which are also answered on air.

The Taliban appear to be interested, concerned and pro-active where the national government has never been any of these things.

These groups in some areas have even won over women by enforcing Islamic inheritance rights, which are enshrined in the Koran (chapter 4:11,176). Though daughters receive only half the share of property sons get, this absolute right to inheritance is often better than women would otherwise get according to tribal customs, depending on the particular group.

A more ominous aspect of these broadcasts however is the announcing of names of government officials, NGO workers and others who have often subsequently been murdered. The Taliban can quickly communicate threats and decrees to a whole village via radio.

Another appealing aspect of these channels is that they are in local dialects, providing local news and events. Information from Islamabad, or other major Pakistani cities, is often suspect to locals, who prefer local information sources.

Another reason why jamming efforts are a stop-gap at best is that FM transmitters are low-cost and widely available. A 10-watt transmitter can be purchased for about $200, and most families have FM radios, which cost less than short- or medium-wave radios. Most basic mobile phone models also have FM radios built in, while busses and cafes also tune in. The transmitters are so easy to transport, they can be used on a moving motorbike, and only need an amplifier and car or bike battery to work.

US and coalition forces however are very slow to change from a reactive stance to a proactive one in this aspect of the conflict. Perhaps it is the WSJ journalist's bias, but this portion of the psy-ops campaign focus seems more on jamming these stations rather than a proactive move to counter the content of the broadcasts.

Jamming them alone brings no perceptible positive gain for the US, Coalition forces, or the Pakistani government. Local groups opposed to the Taliban can step in, but if they are outgunned and outmanned by the internationally reinforced and financed Taliban, they stand little chance of filling the vacuum, although recent reports suggest that in some areas local groups are fighting the Taliban themselves with some success now that the Pakistani army is stepping in, according to recent reports.

I doubt the coalition has the means and personnel to set up these radio stations, as they will need people who speak the local dialect and, most importantly, who understand what grievances and concerns are important to the local population.

Even if they did, under similar restrictions to those facing the military campaign, they will be unable to set up rival stations within Pakistan itself.

In this situation the Pakistani government could step in and offer support, equipment, training, and perhaps most importantly, physical protection for anti-Taliban local radio broadcasters. But given the government's historical reluctance to ensure rule of law or any kind of protection, this is unlikely at best.

Protection may even be the only thing that should be provided by outsiders until such time as the threat from the Taliban is small enough that local residents can hold their own against them. Government interference in content may only serve to discredit non-Taliban local broadcasts. Indeed one of the most effective tools of the Pakistan Taliban has been to center its arguments around the notoriously corrupt Pakistani justice system and promise a more just and efficient one under sharia.

There are local stations that do not support the Taliban. According to Mukhtar A. Khan at Terrorism Monitor, some FM channels in NWFP and FATA are successful. In the Khyber agency for example, Radio Khyber's broadcasts of live discussions on politics, education, music and culture have proven popular, so much so that it has nearly replaced the local Taliban affiliate station. Other examples are cited as well.

Khan recommends local stations set up and broadcast content on farming practices, education, health and many other areas. These are key to development, which the government has neglected to foster.

Local ownership will mean more credibility and therefore appeal, and undermine the Taliban, especially those groups using foreign fighters.

It may be unfair to expect massive organizations like the US military or NATO and non-NATO allies to pick up on these subtleties quickly, but there needs to be some mechanism for these ground conditions to make their way to the right people. I’ll have to look into how ISAF conducts hearts and minds operations and where the strategies come from.

It’s not as if there haven’t been some significant efforts to reform the way the conflict is being fought.

General Stan McChrystal, who is now the US commander in Afghanistan and will be the commander of ISAF, has designed a new plan so that the valuable knowledge gained by soldiers serving in a particular locale is not lost:

“The effort, which is being coordinated by the Joint Staff and is still in its early stages, is designed to create an experienced cadre of officers and senior enlisted soldiers, who would rotate between assignments in Afghanistan and at their home stations until the end of hostilities.”

“By doing so, the Pentagon hopes to end a problem that has plagued the effort in Afghanistan—the lack of familiarity with local conditions by U.S. forces who rotate in and then depart after a year, just when they are beginning to understand the area or the mission where they are assigned.” (emphasis mine)

Of course this will require substantial change in how the Army operates, at least with regard to deployments in Afghanistan. The article quoted above also notes some of these pitfalls.